Journals
  Publication Years
  Keywords
Search within results Open Search
Please wait a minute...
For Selected: Toggle Thumbnails
The Evolutionary Modeling and Short一range Climatic Prediction  for Meteorological Element Time Series
SHU Kang-Qiang, ZHOU Ru-Hua, YANG Jing-An, KANG Zhuo
J4    2005, 23 (4): 1-6.  
Abstract1441)      PDF(pc) (205KB)(1301)       Save

The evolutionary modeling(EM),which is developed from genetic; programming(CP),is a relatively new technique that is an adaptive method for solving(omputational problems in(omplex systems which are of(haoti<(harac;ter and nonlinear variation with tlme  In  many  flelds. The  use  Of   EM  f01' the  Obsel'Ved  tlme  sel'les  Of  pl'eelpltatlOn  In flOOd  season(May一September) at Wuhan station is studled  In  thls  papel'.  The  tlme   sel'les  Of pl'eelpltatlOn is  split lnt0  tW0 pal'ts:  One lneludes  mael'O(limatic; timesc;ale period waves that are affected by some relatrve steady、limatic; factors such as astr'onomic;al factors(like sunspot number et<)as well as other factors that are known and unknown } the other includes micro(hmatle  tlmeseale pel'lOd  W3VPS  supel'1mpOSed  On  the mael'O One.  The  eVOlutlOnal'y  mOdeling(EM)is  suppOSed  t0  be  adept  at  slmulatlng the f01'mel'  pal't  because  It、reates the nonlinear ordinary diferential equation(NODE) based neon the observed trine series.  The natural frac;tals(NE}  al'e used t0  slmulate the lattel' pal't.  The flnal pl'edletlOn is  the  sum Of values from both methods } so the model(an reflects multi一time、(ale satisfactory for(limatic; prediction operation.  The NODE(an suggest the data vary with time which is benefit to think over(limatic; analysis and short一range(limatic; prediction.  Comparison in principle between EM arid a lineal' modeling ARC p) mdn;ates that the EM is a much better method to simulate the、OmpleX  time  sel'les being of nonlinear(harac;teristi<、

Reference | Related Articles | Metrics